Forecasting Denosumab

Topics: Pharmacology, Clinical trial, Drug discovery Pages: 3 (953 words) Published: April 9, 2012
Forecasting Denosumab

Why is forecasting for any new drug so important? Why for Denosumab? Drug forecasting is a very important and essential process for any drug for multiple reasons: 1. Cost: The drug development is a lengthy and an expensive process. It will aid in the predevelopment process to identify future demand and to identify if it is a worthwhile venture. The future of a company could depend on the success or failure of a new drug in the market. 2. Profitability

3. Market Share: forecasting will help in identifying the size of the market share and market potential will aid in the manufacturing and distribution process. Will also aid in proper utilization and eliminate waste. 4. Competition: Assess the potential threats from the competitors and its position in the market. Also help in designing marketing strategies for improving its market share. Drug forecasting is very important for Denusomab not only for the reasons listed above but more so specifically for the following reasons: 1. Amgen , the company manufacturing the drug has invested a lot of money in the research and development of the drug. The products that Amgen produces are not growing well and their market share is declining. Also it has seen a decline in its stock value. So the profitability of the company is at stake. 2. The target disease is an increasing function of the population age and thus the market is available. But the manner in which the drug is positioned will make the difference in the success of Denosumab for Amgen.

How compelling is the drug proposition? (For Denosumab)
At an initial glance the drug proposition is not as compelling. But on gathering more information regarding the competitors the proposition is quite compelling and it could make the drug quite a success. Here is why: 1. The clinical trials head to head with competitors as well placebo controlled trials have shown statistically significant reductions in fracture risk. In addition...
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